As it happens, I'm skeptical that the civil disturbances to come will reach the level of true civil war—at least within the next thirty years or so.
Jeff Goodwin did an excellent study of revolutions called No Other Way Out, arguing that they only take place under particular kinds of governments. They are typically:
1. Arbitrary and tyrannical.
2. Without serious means of public input.
3. "Patrimonial," i.e. run for the benefit of the ruler and his close allies alone.
4. Weak government capabilities (otherwise no revolution could get off the ground).
Our government, while deeply flawed, has none of these characteristics, yet. Moreover, democracy is extremely good at defusing revolutions; not a single established democracy has yet been overthrown by one.
Recall that the Civil War was not a revolution, but a true statist war between two confederations of states. Given that the institutions of the modern US will not soon divide against themselves, I predict we have a long way to go.
Oh, I agree on the Civil War question. That's the only part that doesn't hold up, I think. But it's still possible for our society to simply collapsewithout civil war.
The rot, I fear, runs deep, and a solid shove on any of the weak parts could collapse the whole edifice.
I'm holding my breath over this economic mess. Which reminds me, I need to buy another box of ammo...
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JS-Kit/Echo comments for article at http://smallestminority.blogspot.com/2008/09/up-next-more-lack-of-content.html (3 comments)
Tentative mapping of comments to original article, corrections solicited.
As it happens, I'm skeptical that the civil disturbances to come will reach the level of true civil war—at least within the next thirty years or so.
Jeff Goodwin did an excellent study of revolutions called No Other Way Out, arguing that they only take place under particular kinds of governments. They are typically:
1. Arbitrary and tyrannical.
2. Without serious means of public input.
3. "Patrimonial," i.e. run for the benefit of the ruler and his close allies alone.
4. Weak government capabilities (otherwise no revolution could get off the ground).
Our government, while deeply flawed, has none of these characteristics, yet. Moreover, democracy is extremely good at defusing revolutions; not a single established democracy has yet been overthrown by one.
Recall that the Civil War was not a revolution, but a true statist war between two confederations of states. Given that the institutions of the modern US will not soon divide against themselves, I predict we have a long way to go.
Oh, I agree on the Civil War question. That's the only part that doesn't hold up, I think. But it's still possible for our society to simply collapse without civil war.
The rot, I fear, runs deep, and a solid shove on any of the weak parts could collapse the whole edifice.
I'm holding my breath over this economic mess. Which reminds me, I need to buy another box of ammo...
Note: All avatars and any images or other media embedded in comments were hosted on the JS-Kit website and have been lost; references to haloscan comments have been partially automatically remapped, but accuracy is not guaranteed and corrections are solicited.
If you notice any problems with this page or wish to have your home page link updated, please contact John Hardin <jhardin@impsec.org>